Fayetteville Observer: Who knew Dole-Hagan Senate race would be so close?

Fayetteville Observer
Andrew Barksdale
September 14, 2008

Negative ads are filling the airways in what has become a surprisingly competitive North Carolina race for the U.S. Senate.

Republican Elizabeth Dole, one of the most well-known women in American politics, was swept into office in 2002 alongside a popular wartime president who campaigned for her in the state.

Two years ago, her seat was considered safely in the Republican column.
Not anymore. Two Democratic-leaning polls taken in late August had Dole trailing her Democratic rival, Kay Hagan, by anywhere from 3 percent to 5 percent. Hagan is a five-term state senator from Greensboro.

On the stump, Hagan says she’ll be an independent voice in Washington and fight for the middle class. She touts her record in Raleigh, saying she has helped balance five state budgets and expand early-childhood programs.

One reason behind Hagan’s surge is the support she is getting from out-of-state Democrats, chiefly the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The committee, an arm of the Democratic Party, has pegged Dole as vulnerable in an election year when incumbents — especially Republicans — are expected to fare poorly amid rising jobless claims and gas prices.

The Democratic committee is expected to spend millions trying to unseat Dole in ads that have portrayed the 72-year-old as old, ineffective and closely aligned with an unpopular White House. In August, the liberal group Moveon.org spent almost $500,000 on an ad accusing Dole of “being in the pocket of Big Oil.”

Some say the race is less about the two candidates themselves and more about Dole’s first term.

Coy Brewer, a Fayetteville lawyer and past chairman of the local Democratic Party, put it this way: “Kay Hagan, for most voters, seems to be a reasonably acceptable alternative if the voter doesn’t want to vote for Dole.”

Hagan, in a telephone interview Thursday, said she is comfortable with voters approaching the race that way.

“When I challenged her, I knew her name recognition was widespread, but I’m in this race to win this seat,” she said. “I’m confident I can do it.”

Dole, despite her disarming smile and genteel manners, has come back swinging with two television ads this month. They portray her opponent as “Fibber Kay” Hagan and accuse her of understating her husband’s financial interests in oil stocks.

Hagan said the tone of the ads was not a surprise, given that Dole led the National Republican Senatorial Committee two years ago when the GOP lost seats in Congress. The committee was responsible for several negative ads, Hagan said.
“I’ve never been called a liar before,” she said.

The ads may be working. A survey last week by Raleigh-based Public Policy Polling shows Hagan’s lead slipping to one percentage point — a statistical tie given the poll’s margin of error.

Another poll, released Sept.9 by the nonpartisan SurveyUSA, offered the incumbent more hope: Dole led Hagan 48 percent to 40 percent.

Ballard Everett, a Republican strategist, said Dole’s struggles early in the campaign were unexpected, but that may soon change. Fueling Hagan’s rise, he said, were her commanding primary win in May and TV ads by outside groups attacking Dole this summer.

“Until now, people haven’t really focused on the Senate race,” he said. “Now that the conventions are over, people are going to start paying attention.”

A spokeswoman for the national Republican committee said the organization has spent almost $1 million in the past two weeks airing two ads that cast Hagan as a tax-and-spend liberal who deserves a gold medal for fiscal irresponsibility.

Steven Greene, a political science professor at N.C. State University, said Dole might have taken her seat for granted and was slow to start campaigning for re-election. Some voters believe she hasn’t been prominent enough in the state.
“Whether that is fair or not, politics is all perception,” he said.

Dole spokesman Dan McLagan said his boss has taken nothing for granted and expected the contest to be tight. He dismissed any talk of ineffectiveness or long absences from North Carolina.

“She has been a very effective senator in avoiding base closures and fighting for jobs,” he said. “People know she is working hard for her constituents in North Carolina.”

The candidates’ records are providing plenty of fodder. For weeks, they have been exchanging lobs over their votes on a number of issues, from oil incentives to a minimum wage increase. Dole has accused Hagan of spreading distortions of her Washington record.

Dole had some successes in her first term. The state’s manufacturers association recognized her efforts to help secure some important concessions in trade bills that will benefit North Carolina. She helped sheriffs in the state partner with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to establish the nation’s first statewide plan to identify and process illegal aliens at the local level when they have been arrested for other crimes. And Dole says she saved the state’s public hospitals more than $300 million in each of the past two years from proposed reductions in Medicaid reimbursements.

Hagan defends her record in Raleigh, saying the state has the highest possible bond rating, a secure pension fund and reserves of more than $900 million.

“We are spending money on infrastructure that is critical to the quality of life for our state,” she said. “We are one of the largest-growing states, and people are coming here because of that quality of life.”

That growth may be contributing to Dole’s struggles this election. Paul Shumaker, a Republican strategist, said North Carolina is increasingly being made up of voters who have moved here in the past 15 years, voters more attuned to national issues and less affiliated with any party.

“They are, right now, making a difference in the race,” he said. “Their feelings are reflective more of the mood of the country than the mood of the state.”

Shumaker said voters across party lines are frustrated this year, and that’s a liability that Dole hopes to change in the last seven weeks before Election Day.
“Kay Hagan has the benefit of being unknown, and it’s hard to be mad at someone they don’t know,” he said.

Hagan, who is 55 and a former vice president of a major bank, is co-chairwoman of the Senate Budget Committee. She is getting wide support from Democratic leaders around the state, including Tony Rand, the Senate majority leader from Fayetteville. She also is hitting the pavement, traveling to communities for meet-and-greet events and town hall forums. She was in Fayetteville Aug. 18 to talk about veterans issues.

She is holding her own against the venerable incumbent. As of June 30, Dole’s war chest totaled $2.7 million, compared with Hagan’s $1.2 million.

Morgan Jackson, a Democratic consultant in Raleigh, said Hagan has been an aggressive challenger, unafraid to take on Dole’s record in Washington.

“You’ve got to take her down,” he said. “You have to educate voters on how she is not doing the job for constituents in North Carolina.”

Jackson said candidates in national races, including those for president, are harping on change. That message is hard to overcome, he said, for someone such as Dole who has been a part of Washington — across five White House administrations — for 40 years.

“I think in a normal year, experience plays to one’s strength,” he said. “She doesn’t seem to have that shine anymore.”

Dole was secretary of the transportation and labor departments in the 1980s, and she led the American Red Cross in the 1990s. Her husband, Bob Dole, is a retired U.S. senator from Kansas. She briefly entered the Republican field for president in 2000.

Linda Daves, chairwoman of the N.C. Republican Party, predicted Dole will pull ahead in the final weeks as she airs more ads defining Hagan.

“She is more or less a go-along, get-along Democrat,” Daves said. “Do we really want to transfer that, out of the culture of corruption in Raleigh, to the U.S. Senate?”

Democrats said it was important to find a woman to challenge Dole. It’s harder for men to attack women in politics, observers say.

Another factor in the Senate race could be the Barack Obama effect. Although most polls show John McCain winning North Carolina in the presidential race, Obama helped swell new registrations to record levels earlier this year. Democrats expect many of those new voters will support Hagan.

Dole also needs to strengthen her base. Robert C. Anderson, a Republican from Fayetteville who has run unsuccessfully for Congress, said Dole has not been visible enough — until this campaign season. But he said he still will support her.
“If you look at her votes, they are along with Republicans most of the time,” he said. “And that’s the most important thing that a senator does.”

Back to The Newsroom