Washington Post : "The Fix" Rates North Carolina as Number 8 Senate Race In the Country
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT:
THE FIX MOVES NORTH CAROLINA TO NUMBER 8
From Chris Cillizza’s Washington Post’s “The Fix” blog
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/06/friday_senate_line_6.html
The Line: When a Small Loss Is Your ‘Best Case Scenario’
National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Ensign (Nev.) is nothing if not a realist.
At a luncheon with reporters on Thursday in Washington, Ensign said the best-case scenario for his party in the fall election would be a three-seat loss.
“It would be a great night if we lost three seats,” Ensign said, adding that winning back the majority in this election cycle would be “fairly miraculous.”
Ensign described the 2008 election as “the toughest since Watergate” but insisted that he — and his campaign team — would not cede the cycle to Democrats despite the inherent challenges of the national landscape.
Ensign’s argument? The Senate is the last, best chance to build a “firewall” against a President Barack Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Calif.). “Senate Republicans really will be the firewall to stopping bad legislation or having the majority come to us to modify their positions,” Ensign insisted.
To that end, Ensign’s stated goal is to hold 45 seats after this election, a position that would ensure his party would be able to threaten filibuster on unsatisfactory legislation (60 votes are required to end a filibuster) and leave Senate Republicans the possibility of retaking the chamber in 2010 and 2012 (a total of 36 Democratic seats are up over those two cycles, compared with 32 Republican seats).
Can Ensign meet that relatively low bar? Perhaps — although a plausible path to 56 or 57 seats (or even 58 or 59) does exist for Democrats given the poor state of the GOP brand these days.
Below you’ll find The Fix’s latest rankings of the most competitive Senate races this fall. The No. 1 ranked race is the one considered most likely to switch parties.
As always, The Line is a jumping off point for a broader conversation. Offer your own thoughts on our rankings or even provide rankings of your own in the comments section.
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8. North Carolina ( R): Sen. Elizabeth Dole ( R) knows she is in for a very tough race against state Sen. Kay Hagan (D). Witness her decision to begin running ads in recent days that tout her ability to deliver for the state — ads that never make mention of her party affiliation or President George W. Bush. It’s a sound strategy in such a difficult political environment, but you can bet Hagan and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will do their darndest to ensure every voter in the state knows Dole voted with Bush more than 90 percent of the time in her first term. Having now met Hagan in person, we can testify that she is a talented candidate and, as a woman, will be in a better position than 2002 nominee Erskine Bowles to attack Dole aggressively. (Previous ranking: 9)
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