Politico’s “The Scorecard”: Hagan leading Dole in Dem poll

Politico’s “The Scorecard”
Reid Wilson
September 3, 2008

North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole trails her opponent in a new Democracy Corps poll, highlighting the Republican’s vulnerability in November. Still, Dole’s campaign will point out that the survey was conducted by a Democratic firm. The poll also found the state’s governor’s race is a tie, giving Republicans hope of picking up at least one executive mansion in November.

The survey, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, a Washington-based firm, polled 852 likely voters Aug. 20-26 for a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. (The sample’s partisan breakdown: 40 percent Democratic, 33 percent Republican, 27 percent independent and others.) Dole and state Sen. Kay Hagan were tested, along with Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, the Democratic candidate for governor, and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, the Republican candidate for governor.

General Election Matchup (With leaners)
Hagan………..50
Dole…………45

Perdue……….46
McCrory………46

McCain……….47
Obama………..44

Generic Dem…..49
Generic GOP…..43

The numbers in the governor’s race show what most other surveys agree upon — a tight race in which the candidates are within a point or two of each other. The presidential matchup also tracks closely with most polls; the latest RCP North Carolina Average shows McCain leading by 4.2 points.

The Senate race has been less stable, with some polls showing Dole with a big lead, particularly after she ran an initial series of advertisements, and others with Hagan running close if not even.

Dole has plenty of opportunities to make the race as close as the governor’s race. After respondents were read an informed ballot highlighting each candidate’s positives and negatives, the two tied at 47 percent each.

Still, Dole’s job approval ratings are 38 percent approve to 39 percent disapprove, meaning the Republican will have to use her sizable war chest to bolster he own image. Hagan will continue to try and tie Dole to the unpopular President Bush, whose approval ratings are a dismal 38 percent approve to 57 percent disapprove.

Back to The Newsroom