Raleigh News and Observer: Hagan pulls an upset

Raleigh News and Observer
Barbara Barrett
November 5, 2008

GREENSBORO – Incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole lost her re-election bid Tuesday night to Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan, done in by Hagan’s tireless campaigning, millions of dollars from national Democrats and Barack Obama’s strong run in the state.
It was an upset virtually unthinkable just a year ago, when Democrats scrambled to find a challenger to take on Dole.

“What a difference a year makes,” Hagan said Tuesday in a victory speech in her hometown of Greensboro. Pundits, she said, were ready to hand Dole the keys to her Senate office for another term. “But it’s not her office, and we knew better.”

With 95 of 100 counties reporting, Hagan led Dole by 52.5 percent to 44.4 percent. Libertarian Christopher Cole had 3.1 percent.

“Believe me, it has been an honor and a joy to represent the people of North Carolina in the U.S. Senate,” Dole said in her concession speech. “I’ve done my level best to make you proud.”

The race was marked by a fierce ad campaign, especially in the closing days. Hagan tied Dole to President Bush, whose popularity has plummeted since Dole was hand-picked by the White House to run for the Senate. Dole was unable to overcome her voting record and an infusion of millions of dollars from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Exit polls showed Hagan did well among blacks, women and young voters; Dole did better among older voters, The Associated Press said.

“I was not happy with her,” said Janice Henderson, 67, of Raleigh. “I don’t think we got our money’s worth out of her.”

In the past few months, as the economy faltered and Dole saw her lead slip, national pundits moved the race from “leaning Republican” to “tossup.”

Meanwhile, Hagan blanketed the state with campaign stops. She was helped by ads from the national Democrats, most notably its “Rocking Chairs” ad with two elderly men arguing whether Dole was “92 or 93.” They were talking about her effectiveness ranking and her voting percentage with Bush. But the swipe at Dole’s age — she is 72 — was hardly veiled.

Last week, the race took another nasty turn. Dole ran an ad that accused Hagan of taking “godless money” at a fundraiser and linking Hagan to an atheist group called the Godless Americans. The ad ended with a picture of Hagan and a woman’s voice saying, “There is no God.”

Hagan responded with a lawsuit and her own ad, declaring, “I believe in God.”

“I think some of the last advertising by Sen. Dole really hurt her,” said Dole supporter Tony Hunt of Raeford. “It changed some undecided voters.”

“The nail in the coffin was the Godless Americans thing,” said Andre Wilson, 23, of Durham, who supported Hagan.

An Elon University poll conducted a week ago showed that 48 percent of those polled had a negative opinion of Dole’s campaign; 38 percent held a negative view of Hagan’s campaign.

Ted Arrington, a political scientist at UNC-Charlotte, said Dole was hurt by criticism that she had not been to North Carolina often enough as senator. She also might have assumed she wouldn’t have a competitive race, he said.

Dole was expected a year ago to easily win re-election. Any challenger would struggle to overcome the overwhelming name recognition of Dole, who ran for president in 1999 and served in the administrations of five presidents.

Several Democrats declined to run, including U.S. Rep. Brad Miller of Raleigh. Even Hagan initially took a pass. She jumped in later and succeeded beyond anyone’s predictions, said Ferrel Guillory, director of UNC-Chapel Hill’s Program on Public Life.

“The combination of Kay Hagan’s grit and determination, and the involvement of the Senate committee with its money and creative advertising pulled off a stunning victory.”

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